A live read on one specific question: whether competition in the AI model
layer is transmitting into data-centre credit, and from there into the broad index. The
monitor separates whether the mechanism has actually fired from whether the
market has repriced — because right now those two things are in very different
places.
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The five channels
Each is scored independently so the headline
can never hide a divergence. Levels are client-gated; the direction is not.
The transmission chain being watched
Cash-rich incumbents and state-backed labs push frontier model capability toward
open weights or near-zero pricing.
Revenue growth at the negative-cash-flow frontier labs falls short of the plan their
valuations and compute commitments assume.
Multi-year compute contracts are renegotiated, deferred or fail to convert to cash.
The most leveraged infrastructure — above all the counterparty-concentrated backlog —
loses the revenue underwriting its debt-funded build-out.
Credit spreads widen from the bottom tier up, private credit and leveraged loans
reprice, and collateralised equity positions face forced selling.
Only then does an index sitting at record highs, with almost nothing priced for it,
have to absorb the result.