Your attention Glossary Full analysis AI contagion monitor →

Nine technologies, one story

AI, robots, solar, electric cars, gene editing, wearables, satellites, quantum. You are being sold nine separate futures. They are one story with nine surfaces — and this is an honest account of how much is already decided.

Red — constrains AI. A hard ceiling. Arrow points inward. Blue — complementary. AI accelerates it. Arrow points outward. Violet — both ways. Thickness — strength of the coupling 26 The number on a bubble — how tightly that technology is coupled to AI, 0–100. It is not an ownership score. Hidden on small screens, where it is too small to read; the line thickness says the same thing. Score 0–100 — how much of the tech that bloc owns, not where it sits. Hover a bubble for the scale. owner Ownership flag — the parent is in another bloc. Boston Dynamics is American-built and Korean-owned. Hover or tap a bubble
Horizon

The frame

The orbit above is the conclusion. This is the reasoning that gets you there, in five plain sentences.

If you read nothing else

The world

What we're assuming

Named so you can argue with them. An assumption you can't see is one you can't attack.

    Who decides which one happens

    Usually left out — which makes forecasts read like weather. These are choices, made by people, and they select the branch.

    Who owns each layer

    Attributed by ultimate owner, not by headquarters — which is why Taiwan, Korea and Japan appear as themselves rather than folded into "US and allies".

    The four costs, and why cheap is not the same as arriving

    Three charts the whole frame rests on. The first is the claim, the second is the counter-example, the third is why it does not feel true from where you stand.

    What we think, on the record

    The full analysis →All nine domains, the four collapsing costs, the three brakes, where they cross, and what this instrument cannot see. Six explainers →The arguments that are easier to watch than to read — fleet turnover, compounding reliability, why factory-made gets cheap. Drawn from numbers you can check. Commit before you read →Twelve questions this site has staked a position on. Answer first, then see what we argue. Nothing you answer leaves your browser. The press room →Tariffs, export controls, approvals and agreements. Dated, quoted from the document, and collected daily. Corrections →Every claim this site got wrong, what replaced it, and what changed our mind. It is expected to get longer. Glossary →Every technical term on this site in plain English, with why it matters to the argument it appears in. AI contagion monitor →The evidence layer. Filed and audited documents behind the ~$1trn AI buildout.